No Verstappen podium? Five bold predictions for the Australian Grand Prix

A new Formula 1 season is upon us, and with one final year of this regulatory set alongside plenty of new faces on the grid, fans and pundits around the world are predicting we’re about to see one of the most exciting seasons in recent history.

In that spirit, the writers here at PlanetF1.com are venturing forth with some bold predictions to kick off the action this weekend at Albert Park.

Max Verstappen will be nowhere near an Australian Grand Prix podium

by Elizabeth Blackstock

Trying to come to any significant conclusions about the year ahead based on nothing but three days of pre-season testing at a completely different circuit is something of a fool’s errand, but allow me to venture forth with some foolishness nevertheless: Max Verstappen will be nowhere near a podium at the Australian Grand Prix.

Red Bull logged the fewest laps in testing, with only Lance Stroll taking fewer trips around Bahrain than Max Verstappen and Liam Lawson. Some pundits have suggested that this perhaps indicates that Red Bull has a few tricks up its sleeve that it won’t deploy until qualifying on Saturday, but I’m going to disagree.

As 2024 progressed, Red Bull stumbled. While Max Verstappen never lost his grip on the lead of the World Championship, it’s fair to say that the folks in Milton Keynes were sweating as the likes of McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes began to out-develop them in the midst of some key personnel changes and ever-evolving driver drama centered on the future of Sergio Perez.

I simply don’t see those issues being solved during the off-season. Verstappen is going to push his RB21 to its absolute limits, but I’m afraid that limit is going to leave the team the bottom of the frontrunners. Bye bye, podium.

Jack Doohan to rise to the occasion for his home Australian Grand Prix

by Thomas Maher

The expectation is that Doohan will somehow fail miserably over his first few races as a full-time F1 driver, opening the door for a Franco Colapinto arrival.

But Doohan is no slouch and one must remember that only a few short months ago, no one would have expected anything from Colapinto – sometimes things just click for a driver when they arrive in F1, and prove able to handle the mental stresses they’re put under.

Do I believe he’ll beat Pierre Gasly? Not on performance terms, no, but I’m tipping Doohan to have a great weekend in front of his home crowd and go some way towards silencing some of the negativity that surrounds him.

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Three F1 rookies to outqualify their team-mates in Australia Grand Prix

By Henry Valantine

I think we’ll see at least two, possibly three, rookies outqualify their more experienced team-mates at the first time of asking.

Why? Well, Formula 2 has been in Australia for the past two years so most of them have circuit experience to fall back on, there is not as much expectation on their shoulders and they will want to do all they can to make a good first impression.

The race is another matter entirely, but qualifying could be a chance for the youngsters to shine.

Let’s go with Bortoleto (won in F3 and F2 in Australia in consecutive years), Bearman (I just rate him) and Antonelli.

Carlos Sainz will make Australian Grand Prix podium

By Jamie Woodhouse

Testing times cannot be fully trusted, that is well known by now, but that Williams did look something of a dark horse in Bahrain and with Sainz at the wheel, they have a driver who will take an opportunity and get the job done.

Ordinarily, a top-three result would likely still be a stretch, but with downpours expected on race day, the door could open for the Spaniard.

Oscar Piastri to win Australian GP, no Norris or Verstappen on podium

By Mark Scott

I echo Elizabeth’s sentiments on Max Verstappen and Red Bull above so I’ll focus on the McLaren part of this prediction instead.

If you are someone who frequents in F1 betting, you will see that there is a quite a large discrepancy between the odds of Lando Norris winning and Oscar Piastri emerging victorious.

The McLaren duo are much more closely matched than the current market suggests and, while I do think Norris will win the F1 title this season, I think it is wrong that Piastri should be overlooked to this extent for the Australian GP win this weekend.

He’s a race winner already and this is his home race, which is sure to act as an extra motivating factor.

I’ve also got a sneaky suspicion that Ferrari have had the biggest sandbags on so far – so my top three for Melbourne will be Piastri-Leclerc-Hamilton.

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